What the Indiana Fever need to do to win the Commissioner’s Cup

For the first time in franchise history, the Indiana Fever will play for the WNBA Commissioner’s Cup Championship. They’ll take on the Minnesota Lynx this Tuesday, July 1 at 8 p.m. ET (Prime Video) for the Cup’s $500,000 prize.

The Fever may have had a lukewarm 2025 season thus far, sitting at eighth place in the WNBA standings with an 8-8 record, but they were excellent in Commissioner’s Cup games. Indiana went 4-1 against its Eastern Conference foes, defeating the Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun, New York Liberty and Washington Mystics to earn a spot in Tuesday’s championship game.

The Lynx, meanwhile, are the defending Commissioner’s Cup champions. They’ve cruised back to the championship game with a 5-1 Commissioner’s Cup record (14-2 overall) and will have the advantage of playing Tuesday’s game on their home court.

This will be the first time the Fever play the Lynx in 2025—they went 1-2 against Minnesota last season—and, needless to say, the odds will be against them. Statistically speaking, the Lynx are the best team in the WNBA, and the Fever will need to play mistake-free basketball if they’re going to earn an upset. Three areas of emphasis stand out for Indiana ahead of Tuesday’s game.

1. Efficient backcourt scoring

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It’s no secret that the Fever’s offense is heavily driven by its guards. Caitlin Clark and Kelsey Mitchell are combining to average 37.1 points per game—the most of any backcourt duo in the WNBA—and put a tremendous amount of pressure on defenses with their ability to get into the paint off the dribble and hit deep shots from well beyond the 3-point line.

The Fever can run into problems, however, when one or both of their star guards aren’t shooting well, which is an issue that has cropped up more often than they’d like. Clark was mired in a 13-for-47 (27.7 percent) shooting slump prior to suffering a groin injury that has kept her out of the team’s last two games; Mitchell, on the other hand, has bounced back after a slow start to the season, making 40-of-71 field goals (56.3 percent) in her last five games.

In order to beat the Lynx, though, the Fever will have to find a way to get both Clark and Mitchell going at the same time. Together, the pair takes 31 shots per game; it’s an exciting offensive strategy when those shots are falling, but when they aren’t, they turn into a lot of empty possessions that Indiana has to compensate for.

2. Play with pace—but not carelessly

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Lots of teams say that they want to play fast, but the Fever mean it. With such dynamic guard play at its disposal, Indiana hunts transition opportunities as often as possible, taking advantage of Clark’s passing ability and striking opposing defenses before they can get set. According to Synergy Sports, the Fever rank second in the WNBA in percentage of offensive possessions coming in transition (17.7 percent), and they’ll surely be looking to push the ball on Tuesday against a Minnesota defense that is stout and disciplined.

Where the Fever must strike a happy medium is between pace and chaos. For all of Clark’s gifts as an offensive player, she’s quite turnover-prone; she enters Tuesday’s game committing 5.9 miscues per game, which is by far the most in the WNBA, and while her passing often outweighs the risks she takes with the basketball, she can’t afford to be careless against Minnesota.

The Lynx don’t play quickly in the traditional sense—they rank last in the WNBA in possessions per 40 minutes at 78.39—but they’re opportunistic when they do run. Minnesota is third in the league in opponents’ turnover rate (20.2 percent) and they’re scoring 21.4 percent of their own points off of turnovers. Simply put, if the Fever don’t take care of the ball on Tuesday, the Lynx will make them pay.

3. Get Aliyah Boston involved

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The Fever’s high-octane backcourt is typically what makes the team’s highlight reels, but Aliyah Boston is often their most effective player. One of the WNBA’s strongest back-to-the-basket centers (as well as one of its most difficult to keep off the glass), Boston is in the midst of yet another All-Star season, averaging a career-best 15.9 points per game and leading the league in field goal percentage (59.7 percent).

If the Fever are going to beat the Lynx, they need to go to Boston early and often. The opportunities should be there; in three games against the Lynx last season, Boston averaged 15.7 points, 12 rebounds and two blocks per game and shot 59.5 percent from the field, and there’s no reason to believe she can’t have a big impact in the Commissioner’s Cup Championship. Getting Boston going early will make the Fever’s offense more balanced and, ideally, open things up for their perimeter scorers.