Can the newly-crowned Commissioner’s Cup champion Fever finally beat A’ja Wilson and the Aces?

Yes, the Indiana Fever won the 2025 WNBA Commissioner’s Cup. But, can they beat A’ja Wilson?

That’s the challenge facing the newly-crowned Cup champs on Thursday (7 p.m. ET, Prime Video). And it’s one that might be more difficult than winning the Cup, even though it doesn’t come with an extra payday. Wilson has owned Indy throughout her career, losing just a single game to the Fever in 22 tries. The lone loss came in 2019, Wilson’s second season in the league.

Most recently, Wilson scored 24 points, grabbed seven boards and swatted a pair of shots as the Aces came back to defeat the Fever in Vegas. The venue shifts to Indiana for the second matchup between two squads that have underachieved preseason expectations.

In an effort to escape their early-season, inconsistent malaise and rediscover a more consistent, championship-caliber form, the Aces swung a trade for a former Fever: NaLyssa Smith, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2022 WNBA Draft.

Throughout her WNBA career, Smith’s brand, bolstered by her status as national champion at Baylor who became a top pick, has exceed her play. An offense-first player, Smith has struggled to score efficiently. Her potential to become a stretch big, something she flashed as a rookie in Indiana, has been unrealized. Defensively, she adds little outside of rebounding, as she is an inadequate rim protector who also does not generate steals.

Her resume, in short, suggests Vegas wildly overpaid to acquire her, sending out their 2027 first-round draft pick. On top of that, to accommodate Smith and her salary, the Aces, already starved for reliable depth, had to waive two players, Tiffany Mitchell and Liz Kitley. (Did the Aces know the Washington Mystics are reportedly open to moving Aaliyah Edwards, a more promising prospect on a cheaper, longer contract, when they consummated the deal for Smith?)

Vegas must believe that playing alongside Wilson will allow Smith to become the best version of herself, with head coach Becky Hammon putting her in positions to become a more efficient offensive option and competent defensive cog.

Yet, the Aces’ rather poor record of role player development, in addition to the extreme regression offseason addition Jewell Loyd has experienced in Vegas, does not inspire much confidence that the Smith will be optimized as an Ace. Smith could change the trajectory of the Aces’ season; the direction, however, might not be a positive one. The visit to Indiana, which will be Smith’s first return as an opponent, will provide the first data point. And a loss, considering Wilson’s historic domination of the Fever, would be a more than worrisome one for Vegas.

On other side, the Fever will hope to build off their Commissioner’s Cup victory, which they achieved without Caitlin Clark, who remains out with a groin injury. Without her on Tuesday, Indiana may have discovered a winning formula, one defined by stout defensive and distributed offense.

In addition to questions about Smith’s ability to solve what ails the Aces, here are four more queries for Thursday’s four other WNBA games:

Can Sabrina escape her slump to stop the Liberty’s slide?

Since unleashing back-to-back 34-point performances, Sabrina Ionescu has sunk in to a slump, scoring 12.5 points per game on 21.6 percent in four games. That stretch, which also came after Ionescu sat out a game due to a neck injury, has coincided with a 1-4 slide from the New York Liberty, who also have been without Jonquel Jones (ankle) and Leonie Fiebich (EuroBasket).

While Fiebich’s return certainly should help the Liberty take care of the visiting Los Angeles Sparks on Thursday (7 p.m. ET, League Pass), so would a signature Sab shooting show. The All-Star starter is overdue.

Will the Dream keep pushing the BG button?

As covered earlier this week, Atlanta Dream head coach Karl Smesko acted on his intention to get Brittney Griner more involved in the offense. Will that trend continue on Thursday (7:30 p.m. ET, League Pass), when the Dream welcome the Seattle Storm?

In contrast to the undersized Lynx and depleted Liberty, the Storm do not offer a potentially advantageous matchup for Griner. Seattle not only has a solid interior defense, but also is one of the best teams in the W at turning defensive stops into transition offense, a style of play that can become even more effective if the opponent is deploying two slower-footed bigs.

Griner played under 15 minutes in Atlanta’s May 30 win in Seattle. Naz Hillmon, Atlanta’s “All-Star in her role” super sub, was highly effective playing in her stead, with the Dream outscoring the Storm by 24 points in her 23 minutes.

Does Paige have a 35-point encore in store?

Even with Teaira McCowan and Luisa Geiselsöder returning from EuroBasket, the Dallas Wings are depleted, with Arike Ogunbowale (out; left thumb) and Myisha Hines-Allen (questionable; right ankle) joining DiJonai Carrington (doubtful; rib) and Maddy Siegrist (out; right knee) on the injury. And remember, Ty Harris (right knee) already has been sidelined for the season.

The team signed Liatu King, drafted No. 28 by the Sparks in April, to (somewhat) restock their roster.

However, to have a chance against the second-place Phoenix Mercury, the Wings will need another Paige Bueckers’ masterpiece. The All-Star starter’s best performance of her rookie season came against the Mercury, when she scored 35 points on 68.4 percent shooting. The still wasn’t enough for a Wings win, and barring something even better from Bueckers, it’s hard to see how Dallas gets it done on Thursday (8 p.m. ET, League Pass).

Will Reeve have the Lynx ready to rebound?

As Beckett Harrison noted, the Minnesota Lynx did not seemed moved by the prospect of winning another Commissioner’s Cup. They just wanted the cash. And it showed, as a lackluster Lynx effort resulted in a loss to the Fever.

Back to regularly-scheduled basketball, expect head coach Cheryl Reeve to have her team refocused and ready. That Minnesota lost their previous game to the Washington Mystics, which came without Napheesa Collier, should help the league leaders find the edge they need to triumph on Thursday night (8 p.m. ET, League Pass).

Game information

Las Vegas Aces (8-8) vs. Indiana Fever (8-8)

When: Thursday, July 3 at 7 p.m. ET

Where: Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, IN

How to watch: Prime Video

Los Angeles Sparks (5-12) vs. New York Liberty (11-5)

When: Thursday, July 3 at 7 p.m. ET

Where: Barclays Center in Brooklyn, NY

How to watch: WNBA League Pass

Seattle Storm (10-7) vs. Atlanta Dream (11-6)

When: Thursday, July 3 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Where: Gateway Center in College Park, GA

How to watch: WNBA League Pass

Phoenix Mercury (12-5) vs. Dallas Wings (5-13)

When: Thursday, July 3 at 8 p.m. ET

Where: College Park Center in Arlington, TX

How to watch: WNBA League Pass

Washington Mystics (8-9) vs. Minnesota Lynx (14-2)

When: Thursday, July 3 at 8 p.m. ET

Where: Target Center in Minneapolis, MN

How to watch: WNBA League Pass