Napheesa Collier is a surefire All-Star, but does another Minnesota Lynx have a chance of earning the honor?

The Minnesota Lynx suffered their first loss last week, but two straight double-digit victories in their final Commissioners Cup outings secured them a spot in the championship game, looking to defend their title from last season against the surging Indiana Fever.

Minnesota’s first misstep

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The Lynx were going to lose eventually—sorry to all the “undefeated season” believers. They couldn’t contain Seattle on the road last week, losing the turnover battle, the shooting battle and the rebounding battle. If you lose those three battles, you’re probably going to lose the war.

Those very margins are what felled Minnesota, but if you’re hungrier for more specific answers, they’re equally transparent. Courtney Williams was missing in action; she only took one shot the entire contest. Napheesa Collier brought home an oft-expected 25 points, but her 9-for-23 shooting left the Lynx coming up empty on a few too many possessions. Team defense also had to be better, allowing Seattle to shoot 57 percent from the floor and nearly 40 percent from 3.

One loss is nothing to be concerned about for Minnesota. Seattle is a well-constructed roster with just as many veterans as the Lynx, which can’t be said for most teams in the W. Either way, it’s worth looking at to see what Minnesota’s “losing condition” may be. For now, it just seems like an off night.

Repeat Cup champions?

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Last June, Minnesota was crowned Commissioners Cup champions after outscoring the Liberty by eight points in the second half, ultimately winning by five. This year, the Lynx are back to defend the title against the Fever.

Indiana isn’t nearly as formidable a foe as Sandy Brondello’s 2024 Liberty, but they’re coming off two wins of 14 points or more and boasting one of the scariest “Big 3s” in basketball. Caitlin Clark, Kelsey Mitchell and Aliyah Boston average a combined 52 points per game, which is literally 0.1 points more than Collier, Kayla McBride and Williams. Those six players will most likely determine who ends next week with a mid-season title. Napheesa Collier will also have a chance to showcase her dominance to a huge national TV audience—one that will be made undoubtedly bigger through the chaotic Caitlin Clark fandom echo-chamber experience.

I’m expecting the most competitive Lynx game of the season, but maybe I’m just being hopeful.

An All-Star voting conundrum

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WNBA All-Star fan voting is open until June 28, so Minnesota fans should be pushing to get a second Lynx in the game. Naturally, Phee will make the All-Star game, but she should still be receiving votes in hopes of her being a team captain. McBride has a chance to make her fifth All-Star game, but a combination of missed games and a sub-15 points per game average may ice her out in the brains of non-Minnesota voters. Williams will likely have a similar points per game problem.

There isn’t any mathematical data to necessarily support this claim, but All-Star fan voting usually consists of a person logging on to vote for their favorite players, and then either not filling out the rest of the ballot or just clicking on the players who the WNBA queues at the top of the selection list. I don’t believe that the majority of voters actually fill out their ballots in entirely good faith based on who they really think deserves it. Therefore, a lot of voting has an implicit points bias, because the default WNBA ranking method for the selection screen is points per game.

The points bias is both good and bad. It’s bad because it hurts both dominant defensive players and pass-first point guards, the latter of which applies to Williams. However, most serious basketball statisticians and analysts would agree with the two following claims: There is no single number that can accurately represent a player’s overall value, and players who score more generally tend to be better players than players who score less. Points per game is actually accepted by many statisticians as one of the most accurate ways to judge a players offensive impact, as straightforward and obvious as that may seem. Therefore, maybe it’s not a bad thing that the WNBA ranks players by points per game.

Anyways, the odds of Williams making the All-Star game seem pretty non-existent. McBride is more than likely going to miss the game as well, being the 14th-highest scoring guard when fans can only vote for four guards. A maximum of 11 guards can make the All-Star game. Fan voting is weighted at 50 percent towards determining the starters, with players and media making up the other 50. Reserves are selected exclusively by the league’s 13 head coaches.

Lynx fans should be pushing to get Collier in as a captain, but shouldn’t expect much else from All-Star voting.